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またまたAaron Gleemanがマニアックなものを書いている。「Re-Examining 300」
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/re-examining-300/
は、「マダックス300勝まもなく」に刺激されての分析記事。

The next game Greg Maddux wins -- possibly tomorrow against the Brewers -- will be his 299th in the major leagues. Now, there are two ways to look at that piece of information. One is that Maddux is just two wins away from joining some very exclusive company in the 300-win club. The other is that Maddux, despite starting at age 20, having essentially an injury-free career and being one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, is still two wins from 300.
Maddux, and Roger Clemens just slightly before him, show what I think is probably the upper limit for a pitcher in the current, five-man-rotation era. Maddux is in his 19th season, he's had 15 or more wins in every season except his first two, he's thrown 200+ innings in 15 of his last 16 years, and he has a .637 career winning percentage. And yet, if he continues to pitch at this level until he's 40 (which is no given, certainly), he'll end up with maybe 330 wins.

5人の先発投手でローテーションを回す現代野球では、マダックスの活躍が上限ではないか、とAaronは問題提起している。20歳のときからメジャーで投げ始めて19シーズン目に入るマダックスほどの大投手が、このままのペースで40歳まで活躍しても、330勝までが上限だ。
よく3000本安打(過去25人)、500ホームラン(過去20人)、300勝(マダックスを入れて22人)が並び称されるが、このいずれがタフかといえば、現代では間違いなく300勝だ。

In other words, since 1960, 18 players have reached 3,000 hits, 17 players have reached 500 home runs, and just nine players have reached 300 wins.

1960年以来、3000本安打は18人。500ホームランは17人。でも300勝は9人。さらに最近になるほど減ってくる。ロジャー・クレメンスとマダックスがいかに偉大であるかがわかる。マダックスに続くのは、

After Maddux gets #300 this year, I don't see anyone getting there for quite a while. The closest active pitchers after Maddux are Tom Glavine (258), Randy Johnson (240), Mike Mussina (208), David Wells (206) and Kevin Brown (204). I would give Wells and Brown absolutely zero shot at getting to 300 and, while I think Glavine, Johnson and Mussina all have some sort of a chance, I wouldn't bet on any of them getting there. Johnson is 40, Glavine is 38 and Mussina, though "only" 35, has a 5.20 ERA this season and would need to average 18 wins a year through age 40 to get #300.

だが、トム・グラビン、ランディ・ジョンソン、ムシーナ、ウェルズ、ケビン・ブラウンはたぶん無理だろう。35歳以下でいちばん勝ち星が多いペドロ・マルティネスだって難しかろう。

So who does that leave? Well, the active pitcher under 35 years old who has the most wins is Pedro Martinez, who is 32 years old and has 176 wins. Assuming Pedro gets another 6-7 wins this year, he would then need to average 17-18 wins per year through age 39 to reach 300. I'm generally for not putting anything past Pedro Martinez, but even that might be a little much for him, considering his current ERA and always-tender right arm.

よって、300勝ではなく250勝を一つの新しい大きな節目とすべきではないかとAaronは言う。一つの見識だ。
マダックスは今日勝って299勝に到達。日曜日のフィリーズ戦に300勝を賭ける。
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylc=X3oDMTBpa2lpNnFzBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwN0bQ--?gid=240727108

Maddux will try to become the 22nd pitcher in major league history to win 300 games when he faces the Phillies at Wrigley Field on Sunday. He would be the first National Leaguer to accomplish the feat since Philadelphia's Steve Carlton on Sept. 23, 1983.

ナリーグでは1983年のスティーブ・カールトン以来。
マダックスが史上最後の300勝投手になる可能性だってほんのわずかにはある。まぁいずれとてつもない投手が現れて300勝を達成することになるであろうけれど。