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前の「雑記帳」との連続性が必要なので、「マネーボール」に関係する過去エントリーをまずまとめて再掲しておく。<1/1> Oakland A's GM補佐のPaul dePodestaの講演録「The Science of Winning an Unfair Game」
http://www.leggmason.com/billmillerconf/conference/illustrations/depodesta.asp
をネット上で発見。投資家向けコンファレンスでのスピーチ。
この講演の直前の講演者William GurleyによるIntroductionから引用。
「Tomorrow you get to hear from Paul dePodesta who will talk about the Oakland A's. If any of you have read Moneyball, it's a wonderful book. I'm not going to steal his thunder but I'll note one thing. If you look at the bottom of the front cover of the book it says, "the art of winning an unfair game." If you look at the title of his speech tomorrow, it's "the SCIENCE of winning an unfair game." These guys clearly use technology to gain an advantage.」
Paul dePodestaは、Baseball Americaの「Top 10 General Manager Prospects」に選ばれている。
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/031209gmprospects.html
「DePodesta debuted on this list three years ago at the age of 27, and he's continued to bolster his profile as Billy Beane's assistant since November 1998. DePodesta turned down an offer to be the Blue Jays GM in 2002, and though he hasn't interviewed since, he's viewed as Beane's successor in Oakland. DePodesta is more well rounded than "Moneyball" would have you believe. Yes, he's intellectual, has excellent administrative skills and knows how to study statistics, but he appreciates traditional scouting methods. His first job with the Indians in 1996 involved advance scouting. Beane relies heavily on DePodesta's opinion, and his experience with a limited budget makes him an attractive candidate given today's economic hurdles.」
William Gurleyの講演
http://www.leggmason.com/billmillerconf/conference/illustrations/gurley.asp
の中でもずいぶんメジャーリーグについての言及がある。まずはボストン・レッドソックスに移籍したカート・シリングの研究について。
「On the screen is Curt Schilling, pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I don't know if many of you know this, but Curt took it upon himself to film ten years of himself pitching against different batters. The teams didn't do this sort of thing, so he hired the staff-the cameramen and editors-and ended up with all of his pitches on CD-ROMs which he carries with him. Sometimes they show him in the dugout with his laptop open watching these pitches. He's evaluating, before he goes up against a batter, each time he as pitched against that batter. He knows what their weaknesses and strengths are and what kinds of pitches might work or not work against them. As many of you may know, he was co-MVP of the World Series in 2001.」
こういうデータ分析の効果をチーム単位でまず導入したのがS.F. Giants。
「How did teams deal with this? The San Francisco Giants hired a Chief Information Officer. They now have a CIO! They installed nine cameras with different angles and now they digitally encode every batting attempt in their park so that their batters can view every single bat that they've had against a particular pitcher. Competition is leading to more and more money being spent on technology. Now there are about ten ball clubs that are putting in the same system. I guarantee that the rest of them will install them as well, but they won't be gaining a competitive advantage.」
このこととS.F.Giantsの2002年、2003年の好成績との関係はどの程度のものなのだろうか。