■

マーキュリー・ニュースの「Sabean downplays need to deal」が、ナリーグ西地区後半戦を分析している。
(1) ジャイアンツはロードゲームが多い。今から8月後半までがしんどい。

Of the three contenders, the Giants face the worst home/road ratio: 32 games at home, 41 away. A bullpen-testing four-game series at Colorado begins a stretch of 34 games over 35 days in eight cities, including 18 in a row against winning teams.

(2) ジャイアンツのシュミット以外の先発陣が弱い。

Inconsistent pitching is the biggest weakness. Jason Schmidt is 11-2 with a 2.51 ERA, but the rest of the rotation is a combined 20-20 with a 4.72 ERA.

(3) ドジャーズの後半立ち上がりは、負けが込んでいる相手との対戦が多い。

The Dodgers, winners of 11 of their past 14, have the advantage out of the break, with only three of their first 15 games against winning teams.

(4) ドジャーズがホームでの試合数、対戦相手にも恵まれている。三チーム直接対決のこれまでの成績もドジャーズがいちばん上。

Of the three contenders, the Dodgers have the most home games remaining (35), play the fewest against winning teams (44) and have the best record (11-8) in three-way competition among the Padres (7-6) and Giants (8-12).

(5) パドレスはピッチャーはいいが、バッターが非力。

The Padres have the most dangerous pitching staff in the division, with Jake Peavy and David Wells healthy, Trevor Hoffman back to his old form, and Rod Beck improving daily since returning from personal problems.
Therefore, pitcher-friendly Petco Park should play to the Padres' advantage. Instead, it seems only to psych out Padres hitters, who are last in the majors in home runs (63). The possible addition of Arizona's Steve Finley (21 homers) could help.

(6) パドレスは対戦相手に恵まれていない。強い相手が多く、7/21から8/1まで直接対決が続く。

The Padres have the most difficult schedule of the contenders, with 50 of 74 games against winning teams. July 21 to Aug. 1 will be a crucial stretch, with 12 in a row against the Giants and Dodgers.

この分析からは、暗黙のうちにドジャーズ有利という声が聞こえてくる。後半初日の今日は、ジャイアンツもドジャーズも、よろよろしながら勝った。決して圧倒的な強さではない。こんな状況がずっと続きそうだ。